On Thursday, July WTI crude oil (CLN25) closed at $69.16, down $0.11 (-0.16%), while July RBOB gasoline (RBN25) closed at $2.1452, down $0.0239 (-1.10%). The decline occurred after crude oil and gasoline prices initially rallied, reaching a 2-1/2 month high for crude and a 3-week high for gasoline, due to a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This rally reversed following President Trump’s announcement to send letters imposing unilateral tariffs on dozens of trading partners, creating uncertainty in global trade which could dampen energy demand.
Geopolitical tensions persist as the U.S. issued evacuation orders for staff at its embassy in Baghdad amid Iranian threats against U.S. bases, impacting the stability of oil supplies from the region, which produces about a third of the world’s oil. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has indicated a willingness to increase crude production by 411,000 bpd to boost its market share, contributing to concerns about a global oil glut.
Recent data showed U.S. crude oil inventories were 8.3% below the seasonal 5-year average, with production for the week ending June 6 at 13.428 million bpd. Active U.S. oil rigs also fell to a 3-1/2 year low of 442 rigs, significantly down from the peak of 627 rigs in December 2022.
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