As of today, July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) remains unchanged, while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) has increased by +0.30 (+0.06%). Sugar prices have been consolidating above a four-year low due to a two-month downtrend linked to expectations of a global sugar surplus.
The USDA forecasts global 2025/26 sugar production to rise by +4.7% year-over-year (y/y) to a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with a global surplus of 41.188 MMT, indicating a 7.5% increase y/y. This is further compounded by India’s projected sugar production increase of +19% y/y to 35 MMT, driven by larger cane acreage and favorable monsoon rains.
Brazil’s sugar production is also impacted, with USDA and Unica reporting decreases; specifically, a -22.7% y/y drop in cumulative sugar output through mid-May. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has raised its global sugar deficit forecast to a nine-year high of -5.47 MMT for 2024/25, following a surplus of 1.31 MMT in 2023/24, amid tightening production expectations globally.
