As of today, July WTI crude oil prices rose by $1.88 to $73.46 per barrel (+2.62%), while July RBOB gasoline increased by $0.0286 to $2.25 per gallon (+1.29%). This surge comes amid escalating tensions in the Middle East following President Trump’s comments regarding the Israel-Iran war, where he indicated the goal is a “permanent end” to the nuclear dispute without engaging in peace talks. Despite this, there has not yet been a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about 20% of global daily crude shipments.
Further complicating the oil market, US economic data showed a decline in May retail sales by 0.9%, worse than the expected 0.6% drop, and a decrease in the June NAHB housing market index to a 2.5-year low of 32. Additionally, a recent Vortexa report noted a 7.2% week-over-week decline in crude oil stored on stationary tankers, now at 73.97 million barrels. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has ramped up crude output by 411,000 barrels per day, signaling an ongoing strategy to counteract concerns regarding global oil oversupply.
As reported by Baker Hughes, the number of active US oil rigs fell by three to 439, marking a 3.75-year low. This is a notable decrease from the recent peak of 627 rigs in December 2022. Current US crude oil production stands at 13.428 million barrels per day, slightly below the record of 13.631 million barrels per day set in December.
