On Wednesday, July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) closed at -0.20 (-1.24%), marking a continuation of a three-month decline that saw prices reach a four-year low. In contrast, August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) experienced a slight increase of +3.80 (+0.82%). The drop in sugar prices is attributed to expectations of a global surplus, exacerbated by projected increases in sugar production from major producers like India and Brazil.
The USDA forecasted a record 2025/26 global sugar production of 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), up 4.7% year-over-year, with a surplus of 41.188 MMT. India’s sugar production is expected to rise by 19% to 35 MMT, aided by favorable monsoon rains, while Brazil’s production is predicted to climb 2.3% to 44.7 MMT. Despite reduced production forecasts in Brazil due to unfavorable weather, the overall outlook remains bearish for sugar prices.
The International Sugar Organization recently raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to -5.47 MMT, the highest in nine years, following a global surplus of 1.31 MMT in the previous season. The USDA also anticipates a 1.4% year-over-year increase in global sugar consumption, reaching a record 177.921 MMT.
