On Friday, July arabica coffee closed down 1.80% at -5.85, while July ICE robusta coffee fell 3.64% to -147, extending a week of significant losses as robusta reached a 13-month low. Arabica hit a 5-month low earlier in the week due to an improved supply outlook.
Brazil’s coffee harvest is currently 35% complete, slightly behind last year’s 37% but in line with the 5-year average, with robusta at 49% and arabica at 26% as of June 11. The USDA projects Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production to increase by 0.5% year-over-year to 65 million bags, and Vietnam’s production to rise by 6.9% to 31 million bags.
A mixed supply outlook persists as Brazil’s May green coffee exports fell 36% year-over-year to 2.8 million bags, and Vietnam’s coffee production for 2023/24 decreased by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons, the smallest crop in four years. This backdrop of increased production expectations and decreased exports has pressured coffee prices significantly.
