As of today, July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) has decreased by 1.62% to $-0.26, while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) has dropped 0.174% to $-0.80. Sugar prices are under pressure as NY sugar hits a four-year nearest-futures low, attributed in part to a sharp 5% decline in crude prices, which affects ethanol price competitiveness and may lead sugar mills to increase sugar production.
Recent forecasts from the USDA indicate a potential global sugar production increase of 4.7% year-over-year to reach a record 189.318 million metric tons for 2025/26, coupled with a surplus of 41.188 million metric tons. Significant production growth is expected in India, with a projected 19% increase to 35 million metric tons, alongside Brazil’s estimated production rise of 2.3% to 44.7 million metric tons.
Furthermore, Thailand is on track for a 14% rise in sugar output to 10 million metric tons. Despite a forecasted global sugar deficit reaching a nine-year high of 5.47 million metric tons, the market remains bearish due to expected higher production levels from key producers.
