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On Wednesday, September arabica coffee (KCU25) closed down by -6.85 (-2.20%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) fell by -158 (-4.29%). Arabica prices reached a 5-1/2 month low, while robusta prices hit a 13-1/4 month low, prompted by reduced frost risks in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions of São Paulo and Minas Gerais.
Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest is 35% complete as of June 11, slightly behind last year’s 37% but in line with the 5-year average. Conversely, Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op reported only 24.3% of its harvest completed as of June 20, compared to 34.2% last year. Brazil’s May green coffee exports also fell by 36% year-on-year to 2.8 million bags.
The USDA projects Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase by 0.5% year-on-year to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is anticipated to rise by 6.9% to 31 million bags. However, Vietnam’s production for the 2023/24 crop year decreased by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons due to drought.
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