On Thursday, September arabica coffee (KCU25) closed up +1.15 (+0.38%), while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) rose +141 (+4.00%). This price increase follows a recovery from a 13-1/4 month low and is attributed to a decline in the dollar index, which prompted short covering in coffee futures.
As of June 11, Brazil’s coffee harvest was 35% complete for the 2025/26 season, slightly behind last year’s rate of 37% but in line with the five-year average. Meanwhile, the Cooxupe coffee co-op reported that the harvest was only 24.3% complete as of June 20, down from 34.2% during the same period last year. The USDA forecasts that Brazil’s coffee production will rise by 0.5% to 65 million bags and Vietnam’s production will increase by 6.9% to a four-year high of 31 million bags in 2025/26.
Despite these increases in production forecasts, Brazil’s coffee exports fell by 36% year-over-year in May to 2.8 million bags, while Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2023/24 crop year is projected to decline by 20% due to drought conditions.
