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On Thursday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) closed up +345 (+3.97%), while July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN25) rose by +202 (+3.35%). The increase in cocoa prices is driven by a reduction in Ghana’s 2024/25 production forecast from 617,500 MT to 600,000 MT due to expected smaller supplies. Ghana is the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.
Additionally, Nigerian cocoa exports plummeted by 29% year-on-year to 14,110 MT in May, and reports indicate that weather conditions are impacting cocoa harvests in both Ghana and Ivory Coast. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently projected a 2023/24 global cocoa deficit of -494,000 MT, signaling significant supply concerns.
Despite the current rally, cocoa prices are facing bearish pressures due to weaker consumer demand, as evidenced by reduced sales forecasts from major chocolate makers like Barry Callebaut AG and Hershey Co. The ICCO has revised its global cocoa production outlook, now estimating a 4.84 MMT output for 2024/25, predicting a surplus after years of deficits.
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