On Friday, July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) closed up by +0.16 (+1.02%), while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) rose by +6.80 (+1.42%). This surge in sugar prices followed JPMorgan Chase’s adjustment of Brazil’s sugar outlook for 2025/26 from a surplus of +200,000 metric tons to a deficit of -900,000 metric tons, citing poor yields and low sucrose content.
Sugar prices had previously hit a four-year low due to expectations of a global surplus, with the USDA projecting a record 189.318 million metric tons of sugar production for 2025/26, and a surplus of 41.188 million metric tons. Expectation of increased sugar production in India by +19% to 35 million metric tons, and positive monsoon forecasts further weigh on prices.
Conversely, the International Sugar Organization has raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a nine-year high of -5.47 million metric tons, indicating a tightening market after the previous surplus. Notably, Brazil’s sugar exports are down due to adverse weather conditions.
