On Monday, September arabica coffee (KCU25) closed down -3.65 (-1.20%) and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) decreased by -41 (-1.12%). The decline in coffee prices follows substantial rainfall in Brazil, particularly in Minas Gerais, which received 5 mm of rain, equating to 714% of its historical average. This easing of dryness is positive for Brazil’s coffee crops.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts an increase in Brazil’s coffee production for 2025/26 by 0.5% year-over-year to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is expected to rise by 6.9% to 31 million bags. Brazil’s coffee harvest is currently 35% complete, slightly behind last year’s pace of 37%. Meanwhile, Brazil’s May coffee exports fell by 36% year-over-year to 2.8 million bags.
Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2023/24 crop year has decreased by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons, marking the smallest crop in four years. The USDA projects a world coffee production increase of 2.5% year-over-year to a record 178.68 million bags for 2025/26, with arabica production expected to fall by 1.7% and robusta output increasing by 7.9%.
