As of today, September arabica coffee (KCU25) is down 1.80% to $5.40, while September robusta coffee (RMU25) is up 1.19% to $43. Arabica prices are under pressure mainly due to favorable rainfall conditions in Brazil, with 5 mm of rain reported in Minas Gerais, which alleviates drought concerns impacting coffee crop health. The USDA projects that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will rise by 0.5% to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is expected to increase by 6.9% to a four-year high of 31 million bags.
In Brazil, the coffee harvest is reported to be behind schedule at 24.3% completion compared to 34.2% last year at the same time. Brazil’s May green coffee exports fell 36% year-over-year to 2.8 million bags. Conversely, robusta coffee prices have seen an uptick due to declining inventories, which fell to a six-week low of 5,108 lots. The USDA’s biannual report predicts a world coffee production increase of 2.5% for 2025/26, despite an expected 1.7% decrease in arabica production and a 7.9% increase in robusta production.
