On Thursday, September ICE NY cocoa closed at $8,112 per ton, down 1.51%, while September ICE London cocoa #7 ended at $5,413 per ton, down 1.88%. This marked a selloff for cocoa prices, with NY cocoa hitting a 2.5-month low and London cocoa reaching a 7.5-month low.
The downturn was influenced by a forecast from the Ghana Cocoa Board predicting an 8.3% year-over-year increase in the 2025/26 Ghana cocoa crop, raising concerns about oversupply. Additionally, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports rose to 2,333,683 bags, just under a 9.75-month high. In contrast, cocoa exports from Nigeria fell 29% year-over-year to 14,110 MT in May, contributing to bearish market conditions amid global concerns over demand, driven by high cocoa prices and tariffs.
Quality issues have also emerged, particularly from the Ivory Coast, where 5-6% of mid-crop cocoa is reported as poor quality, compared to 1% in the main crop. Despite an anticipated surplus in 2024/25, the International Cocoa Organization estimates a global cocoa deficit of 494,000 MT for 2023/24, the largest in over 60 years.
