October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) has decreased by 0.16 cents (-0.98%) to a current price, while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) dropped by 1.80 cents (-0.38%). The decline in sugar prices follows the removal of frost risks in Brazil’s weather forecasts and a recent rise in the dollar index to a 1.5-week high, contributing to negative pressure on the market.
Expectations of a global sugar surplus have weighed heavily on prices, with the USDA projecting a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT) of production for 2025/26, a 4.7% increase year-on-year. India’s sugar production is anticipated to climb 19% year-on-year to 35 MMT, supported by early monsoon rains, which is expected to create a significant oversupply situation. Additionally, Brazil’s production for the same period is projected to increase by 2.3% year-on-year to 44.7 MMT.
The market has faced further bearish signals from the Indian government relaxing export restrictions, allowing for the export of 1 MMT of sugar, contrasted with a 2022/23 season total of only 6.1 MMT due to previous restrictions. In light of these developments, the International Sugar Organization raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high of -5.47 MMT in May, indicating a tightening market.
