As of today, September arabica coffee (KCU25) increased by 0.70 (+0.24%) while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) decreased by 74 (-2.23%). Arabica coffee prices reached a 1.5-week high, driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions due to President Trump’s announcement of a 50% tariff on US imports from Brazil, effective August 1.
Meanwhile, robusta coffee continues to face downward pressure amidst reports from the Vietnam National Statistics Office that the country’s coffee exports for January to June 2025 rose by 4.1% year-over-year, totaling 943,000 metric tons. Brazil reported its coffee harvest completion at 69% as of July 9, exceeding last year’s 66% and the five-year average of 62%. This includes 88% of the robusta harvest and 58% of the arabica harvest. Forecasts from the USDA indicate Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to rise to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s is projected to reach 31 million bags, marking a 6.9% increase year-over-year.
In Brazil, rainfall has been below normal, which may support coffee prices, although robusta inventories have increased from a recent low of 5,108 lots to 5,349 lots. Conversely, arabica coffee inventories have risen to a five-month high of 831,719 bags.