On Tuesday, September arabica coffee prices (KCU25) fell by $4.50, or 1.49%, closing at a lower rate alongside a $111 drop, or 3.15%, in September ICE robusta coffee prices (RMU25). This decline followed a significant surge on Monday where arabica coffee prices rose by 5.36% and robusta by 9.42%, primarily due to concerns over dry weather impacting Brazil’s coffee supply.
As of July 11, Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op reported that 49.3% of its coffee harvest was completed. Additionally, Brazil’s overall coffee harvest for the 2025/26 season was 69% complete as of July 9, ahead of last year’s figures. The USDA forecasts Brazil’s coffee production for 2025/26 to rise by 0.5% year-on-year to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s production is expected to increase by 6.9% to 31 million bags.
Meanwhile, ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories reached a 10-month high of 5,492 lots on Tuesday, contributing to downward pressure on coffee prices. Vietnam’s coffee production decreased by 20% year-on-year for the 2023/24 crop year, marking the smallest output in four years due to drought conditions.
