The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.35% to reach a 3.5-week high, boosted by strong economic signals such as a decrease in weekly initial unemployment claims to 221,000—7,000 lower than expected—and a +0.6% month-over-month increase in June retail sales, surpassing the +0.1% forecast. Fed Governor Kugler indicated that the Federal Reserve should maintain current interest rates for “some time.”
In economic forecasts, the July Philadelphia Fed business outlook improved by +19.9 to a five-month high of 15.9, while the Federal funds futures estimate a 3% chance of a -25 basis point cut at the upcoming July 29-30 meeting. On the trade front, President Trump announced pending tariffs of 10% to 15% for over 150 countries effective August 1, potentially affecting economic relationships globally.
In other currency movements, EUR/USD declined by -0.44% to a 3.5-week low, and USD/JPY increased by +0.41%. Japan’s trade figures revealed June exports fell -0.5% year-over-year, contrary to expectations of a +0.5% increase, while imports rose by +0.2%, exceeding the -1.1% forecast. Precious metals fell as well, with gold down -0.85%, pressured by the rising dollar and comments from Fed officials.
