On September 18, 2023, cocoa prices surged with September ICE NY cocoa rising by 6.29% to +460 and September ICE London cocoa #7 increasing by 4.02% to +193. This uptick follows North American Q2 cocoa grindings, which fell only 2.8% year-on-year to 101.865 million tons, contrasting with larger declines in Europe and Asia.
In Europe, Q2 cocoa grindings dropped by 7.2% year-on-year to 331,762 tons, outpacing expectations of a 5% decline, while Asia reported a 16.3% fall to 176,644 tons, the lowest for a Q2 in eight years. Additionally, U.S. cocoa inventories rose to a 10-month high, prompting concerns regarding demand as chocolate maker Barry Callebaut AG cut its sales volume forecasts due to high cocoa prices.
Ghana’s Cocoa Board forecasts an 8.3% increase in the 2025/26 cocoa crop to 650,000 tons, while Ivory Coast’s cocoa shipments from October 1 to July 13 reached 1.73 million tons, marking a 6.8% increase year-on-year but lower than the previous year’s larger increase. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) also revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 tons, the largest in over 60 years.
