On September 25, arabica coffee (KCU25) prices fell by 5.10 cents (-1.725%), reaching a 1.5-week low, while robusta coffee (RMU25) increased by 1 cent (+0.03%). Supply concerns eased as discussions between Brazil’s Cecafe and US trade officials indicate potential tariff exemptions for Brazilian coffee exports, as noted by US Commerce Secretary Lutnick.
The ongoing coffee harvest in Brazil is impacting prices, with Cooxupe reporting that its harvest is 67% complete as of July 25, ahead of last year’s 81%, and the 5-year average of 77%. The USDA projected Brazil’s coffee production for 2025/26 at 65 million bags, a 0.5% increase year-over-year, while the robustness of Vietnam’s production is expected to rise to a four-year high of 31 million bags.
Further factors influencing prices include a 31% year-over-year drop in Brazil’s June green coffee exports to 2.3 million bags, reduced Vietnamese production due to drought, and a reported increase in ICE robusta coffee inventories to a 1-year high of 7,029 lots. In contrast, arabica inventories fell to a 4.0-month low of 770,621 bags, which could support arabica prices.
