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On Friday, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) closed at $16.12, down $0.17 (-1.04%), while October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) decreased by $2.80 (-0.60%), marking a one-week low for NY sugar and a 3.5-week low for London sugar. The decline in prices is attributed to a reported 15% year-over-year increase in Brazil’s Center-South sugar output, reaching 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) in the first half of July.
India’s meteorological data indicates a cumulative monsoon rain of 440.1 mm, which is 8% above normal, suggesting a potential bumper sugar crop that may allow local mills to export 2 MMT of sugar for the 2025/26 season. Additionally, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories predicts a 19% increase in sugar production to 35 MMT for the 2025/26 season, following a decline to 26.2 MMT in 2024/25.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) recently revised its global sugar deficit forecast for 2024/25 to a nine-year high of -5.47 MMT. This follows a forecast that anticipates global sugar production for 2025/26 to reach a record 189.318 MMT, with an increase in global ending stocks to 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year.
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