On September 1, 2023, arabica coffee prices rose by +3.80 (+1.34%) and robusta coffee prices up +73 (+2.19%), driven by below-average rainfall in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region, which received only 2.7 mm of rain during the week ending August 2, 31% of the historical average.
Current market conditions include a decrease in ICE arabica coffee inventories to 761,453 bags, the lowest in 5.5 months, while robusta coffee inventories have increased to a one-year high of 7,029 lots. Additionally, Brazil’s total green coffee exports fell by 31% year-on-year to 2.3 million bags in June 2023, with significant declines in both arabica (down 27%) and robusta (down 42%) exports.
As of late July, Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op reported a 67% harvest completion, with overall estimates showing that Brazil’s coffee production for 2025/26 is projected to rise by 0.5% year-on-year to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s production is expected to increase by 6.9% to 31 million bags.
