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As of today, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) has increased by 2.99%, rising by +222 to reach a total of 7,679, while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU25) has decreased by 0.11%, down -6 to 5,494. Cocoa prices are mixed, with London cocoa hitting a 4-week low, whereas NY cocoa recovered sharply from a 5-week low due to short-covering influenced by a decline in the dollar index.
ICE cocoa inventories in U.S. ports have dropped to a 2.75-month low, reported at 2,191,730 bags as of Thursday. Additionally, cocoa export shipments from the Ivory Coast reached 1.78 MMT for the marketing year, up 6.0% from last year but lower than the previous 35% increase recorded in December. Quality issues with the mid-crop cocoa are apparent, with processors rejecting around 5-6% of truckloads compared to 1% during the main crop.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently revised its global cocoa deficit for the 2023/24 cycle to -494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, alongside a projected production decline of 13.1% year-on-year to 4.380 MMT. Looking forward, the ICCO predicts a surplus of 142,000 MT for the 2024/25 season, with production expected to rise by 7.8% to 4.84 MMT.
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