On Wednesday, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) closed up +0.06 (+0.37%) and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) closed up +0.30 (+0.06%). This increase follows a reduction in Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production estimate by Conab, which was cut by -3.1% to 44.5 million metric tons (MMT) from a prior estimate of 45.9 MMT.
In China, July sugar imports surged +76% to 740,000 MT, and Pakistan has tendered for 200,000 MT of refined sugar, signaling stronger global demand. Meanwhile, projections indicate that India may allow local sugar mills to export 2 MMT of sugar in the next season, potentially increasing supply in the market. India’s 2025/26 sugar production is expected to rise +19% to 35 MMT due to favorable agricultural conditions.
The global sugar market is experiencing tensions as analysts predict a significant surplus. On June 30, it was reported that a 7.5 MMT surplus is expected for the 2025/26 season. Additionally, the USDA anticipates global sugar production to reach a record 189.318 MMT in 2025/26, up +4.7% year-on-year.
