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As of today, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) is down 0.11 (-0.67%), while October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) is down 0.10 (-0.02%). Sugar prices declined following reports of increased sugar production in Brazil, where output for the first half of August rose 16% year-on-year to 3,615 MT. Additionally, the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increased to 55% from 49.15% compared to last year. However, cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season is down 4.7% year-on-year to 22.886 MMT.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of 231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, a decrease from a 4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25. In contrast, India’s sugar production is expected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 35 MMT in 2025/26, exacerbating the bearish outlook for sugar prices. The USDA projects that global sugar production may reach a record 189.318 MMT in 2025/26, with ending stocks expected to increase by 7.5% to 41.188 MMT.
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