Stocks Boosted by Anticipation of Federal Reserve Rate Reductions

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The S&P 500 Index is up 0.35% today, with the Dow Jones up 0.08% and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.79%. Key economic indicators reveal the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 5-month low of 4.04%. Markets have priced in a 25 basis points (bp) rate cut by the Federal Reserve at next week’s FOMC meeting, with a 10% chance of a 50 bp cut. This follows a weaker-than-expected US August payroll report that raised concerns over job market support.

Weaker trade data from China indicated August exports rose 4.4% year-over-year, below the expected 5.5%, while imports increased 1.3%, less than the anticipated 3.4%. Upcoming US reports include August PPI expected unchanged at 3.3% year-over-year and August CPI projected to rise to 2.9% from 2.7%. The market is currently pricing in a total rate cut of 76 bp to 3.62% by year-end.

Chip stocks are leading the market rise, with Broadcom up over 4% and AppLovin jumping more than 10% due to S&P Dow Jones Indices announcing its replacement of Caesars Entertainment in the S&P 500 effective September 22. Conversely, telecommunication stocks are declining, with SBA Communications down more than 4% following SpaceX’s acquisition of wireless spectrum from EchoStar for $17 billion.

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