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On Thursday, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) rose by +5.20 (+1.38%) while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) fell by -3 (-0.07%). The mixed price trend was influenced by forecasts of rain in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions and a strong Brazilian real, which reached a 15-month high against the dollar, affecting export sales.
Arabica coffee inventories at ICE have dropped to a 16.5-month low of 658,302 bags, while robusta inventories are at a 1.75-month low of 6,517 lots. A 50% tariff on Brazilian imports into the U.S. has led to a significant reduction in coffee stocks, as about a third of unroasted coffee in America is sourced from Brazil. Meanwhile, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, recently cut its 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags.
In additional context, Vietnam’s coffee production is expected to decrease by 20% year-on-year due to drought, producing only 1.472 million metric tons, marking the smallest crop in four years. Global coffee production is projected to reach a record 178.68 million bags in the 2025/26 cycle, led by increases from Brazil and Vietnam.
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