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On Monday, November Nymex natural gas closed at $3.26, up 1.90% or $0.061. Prices reached a one-week high due to forecasts predicting above-average temperatures in the U.S., potentially increasing demand for electricity as air conditioning usage rises. Atmospheric G2 indicated warmer conditions for October 4-8 and over the eastern U.S. for October 9-13.
U.S. (lower-48) dry gas production was reported at 108 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day), a 6.4% increase year-over-year, while gas demand rose to 69.8 bcf/day (+4.4% y/y). The Edison Electric Institute noted that U.S. electricity output from the week ending September 20 increased by 2.3% year-over-year to 85,663 gigawatt hours. Additionally, the EIA’s recent report showed a rise in nat-gas inventories by 75 bcf, slightly above the consensus and below the 5-year average.
As of September 26, the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs decreased by one to 117, down from a two-year high of 124. In the past year, rig counts have increased from a low of 94 rigs in September 2022.
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