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On October 3, 2025, November WTI crude oil closed at +0.40 (+0.66%) and November RBOB gasoline at +0.0098 (+0.53%) due to a weaker dollar prompting short covering. However, concerns over a global supply glut persist as OPEC+ plans to increase crude production by approximately 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in November.
OPEC’s production rose by 400,000 bpd to 29.05 million bpd in September, the highest in 2.5 years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates a record oil market surplus of 3.33 million bpd next year. Iraq’s resumption of oil exports could also add 500,000 bpd to global supply. Additionally, U.S. crude oil inventories as of September 26 were 4.1% below the seasonal 5-year average.
West Texas crude oil stored on stationary tankers increased by 3.7% to 81.95 million barrels for the week ending September 26, while the total U.S. oil rig count decreased to 422, slightly above the 4-year low of 410.
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