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December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed up +9.70 (+2.58%) and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) increased by +128 (+2.90%) on Wednesday, driven by a remarkable drawdown in ICE coffee inventories. Current arabica inventories have fallen to a 1.5-year low of 525,989 bags, while robusta inventories have dropped to a 2.5-month low of 6,237 lots. These declines are attributed to a 50% tariff on US imports from Brazil, which accounts for about a third of America’s unroasted coffee.
Concerns over dry weather in Brazil’s coffee-growing region, where rainfall has only reached 3% of the historical average, further bolster coffee prices as Brazil is the world’s largest arabica producer. Additionally, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, has reduced its 2025 arabica crop estimate by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags.
Despite higher prices, the International Coffee Organization reported a modest increase in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, rising 0.2% year-on-year to 127.92 million bags, while Vietnam’s coffee exports from January to September 2025 showed a significant increase of 10.9% year-on-year to 1.230 million metric tons.
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