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As of October 2, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) has decreased by 0.45 cents (-2.80%) to a three-week low, while December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) dropped by 3.60 pounds (-0.80%). These declines extend a week-long slump in sugar prices, attributed to increased sugar output, particularly in Brazil, which reported a 15.7% year-over-year rise in sugar production to 3.622 million tonnes during the first half of September.
Global sugar surpluses are projected, with BMI Group estimating a surplus of 10.5 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season. Simultaneously, India reported abundant monsoon rains expected to boost its sugar production by 19% year-over-year to 34.9 million tonnes. However, a potential diversion of 4 million tonnes of sugar for ethanol production in India could increase exports to 4 million tonnes, exceeding previous expectations of 2 million tonnes.
Additionally, Thailand anticipates a 5% increase in sugar production for the 2025/26 season, totaling 10.5 million tonnes. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit of 231,000 tonnes in 2025/26, down from a projected shortfall of 4.88 million tonnes in 2024/25, despite expectations of rising global consumption.
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