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As of today, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) has risen by +0.19 (+1.23%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is up by +7.00 (+1.59%). The increase in sugar prices is attributed to a stronger Brazilian real and robust sugar demand from China, with China’s September sugar imports increasing by +36% year-over-year to 550,000 MT.
Recent projections indicate significant global sugar surpluses, with the BMI Group estimating a surplus of 10.5 million MT for the 2025/26 season and Covrig Analytics forecasting a surplus of 4.1 million MT. Conversely, Brazil’s sugar output is on the rise, with a reported increase of +10.8% year-over-year to 3.137 million MT in the second half of September. India’s sugar production is also expected to climb by +19% year-over-year to 34.9 million MT due to favorable monsoon conditions.
Moreover, the International Sugar Organization has predicted a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, down from a -4.88 million MT shortfall in 2024/25. The USDA projects global sugar production to rise by +4.7% year-over-year to a record 189.318 million MT for the same period.
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