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On Wednesday, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed down -0.11 (-0.77%), marking a five-year nearest-futures low. Meanwhile, December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) dropped by -0.70 (-0.17%). This downturn is attributed to an anticipated larger sugar crop in India, where the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 31 million metric tons (MMT), an 18.8% increase year-on-year. The organization also reduced the forecast for sugar used for ethanol production to 3.4 MMT, potentially boosting India’s exports.
Brazil’s sugar production outlook is similarly bearish, as the national crop agency Conab adjusted its 2025/26 sugar output forecast to 45 MMT, up from 44.5 MMT. Recent data from Unica shows that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output for early October increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons. Cumulatively, 2025-26 Center-South production through mid-October rose by 0.9% to 36.016 MMT.
Globally, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar deficit of 231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, a reduction from a shortfall of 4.88 MMT in 2024/25. Conversely, the USDA predicts global sugar production will rise by 4.7% year-on-year to a record 189.318 MMT for the same period, with ending stocks projected to grow by 7.5% to 41.188 MMT.
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