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As of March, NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) rose by +0.12 (+0.85%) and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) increased by +1.50 (+0.36%). This recovery in sugar prices follows a month-long decline that had driven NY sugar to a 5-year low and London sugar to a 4.75-year low, primarily due to heightened sugar output in Brazil and predictions of global sugar surpluses.
Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 million metric tons (MMT). Meanwhile, the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has increased its India’s 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 31 MMT, marking a +18.8% year-on-year rise. This surge in global supply, paired with favorable monsoon conditions in India, is anticipated to suppress prices further.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 season, in contrast to a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25. Projections indicate a global production increase of +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT, with consumption just slightly outpacing production at 180.8 MMT.
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