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As of November 14, December WTI crude oil prices are down $1.47 (-2.42%) to $59.34 per barrel, and December RBOB gasoline prices are down $0.0612 (-3.06%) to $1.94 per gallon. Gasoline has reached a 1.5-week low, largely influenced by a recent strengthening of the dollar index to a 1.5-week high and mixed inventory reports from the EIA.
Crude oil export shipments from Russia have fallen to 1.7 million bpd, the lowest level in over three years. Factors contributing to these declines include Ukraine’s targeting of refineries, which knocked out 13% to 20% of Russia’s refining capacity, and new sanctions from the US and EU. Meanwhile, OPEC reported a Q3 surplus of 500,000 bpd, contrary to earlier estimates of a deficit, and indicated that US crude production for 2025 is projected to rise to 13.59 million bpd.
In terms of inventory data, the EIA reported a 3.43 million bbl drop in crude stocks, while gasoline inventories saw a larger-than-expected rise of 2.3 million bbl. Active US oil rigs increased by 3 to a total of 417, remaining above an August low of 410 rigs.
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