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January WTI crude oil (CLF26) fell by $1.37 (-2.33%) to 5-week lows, while January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) dropped by $0.0363 (-1.99%) on November 21. The declines are attributed to expectations that a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war could increase global oil supplies, and weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data.
Ukraine reportedly agreed to revised peace deal terms, but Russia’s acceptance remains uncertain. The latest U.S. retail sales rose by only +0.2% in September (versus a +0.4% forecast), with private payrolls decreasing by an average of -13,500 weekly in early November. Additionally, consumer confidence fell to a 7-month low of 88.7, below expectations of 93.3.
Vortexa reported a rise in stationary crude oil on tankers by +9.7% week-over-week to 114.31 million barrels, the highest in over 2 years. OPEC’s October production increased by +50,000 bpd to 29.07 million bpd, marking a 2.5-year high, while U.S. crude oil production fell by -0.2% to 13.834 million bpd as of November 14.
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