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March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) rose by +0.21 (+1.41%) and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) increased by +5.60 (+1.31%) on November 14, 2023. Sugar prices reached five-week highs following StoneX’s reduction of its Brazil 2026/27 Center-South sugar production estimate to 41.5 million metric tons (MMT), down from 42.1 MMT.
Increased production estimates are affecting future prices; the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, attributed to higher production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Rising sugar output in Brazil is also noted, with Conab raising its 2025/26 estimate to 45 MMT, an increase from a previous 44.5 MMT forecast.
Furthermore, the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 production estimate to 31 MMT, an 18.8% increase year-on-year. The USDA projects global 2025/26 sugar production to rise by +4.7% year-on-year to a record 189.318 MMT.
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