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On Monday, March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed down -1.50 (-0.39%) and January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) fell by -93 (-2.04%), reaching one-week lows. The decline is attributed to an outlook of abundant coffee supplies after the European Parliament approved a one-year delay on the deforestation law, maintaining ample coffee imports from regions with ongoing deforestation.
ICE arabica coffee inventories hit a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20, while robusta inventories fell to 4,342 lots, a 6.75-month low. U.S. coffee imports from Brazil dropped 52% from the previous year, totaling 983,970 bags, due to tariffs. In contrast, Brazil’s coffee production for 2026/27 is forecasted at 70.7 million bags, a year-over-year increase of 29%.
Vietnam’s coffee exports from January to October rose 13.4% year-over-year to 1.31 million metric tons, with projections for a 6% increase in production in the upcoming year. The International Coffee Organization reported a 0.3% decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, totaling 138.658 million bags.
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