Crude Oil Prices Surge Amid Rising Geopolitical Conflicts and Positive Energy Demand Outlook

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On January 9, 2024, WTI crude oil increased by 0.41 to $59.86 per barrel, marking a two-week high, supported by ongoing sanctions on Russian energy exports amid geopolitical tensions from the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, gasoline prices rose by 0.0093 to $1.84 per gallon, as the S&P 500 surged to a five-week high, indicating optimism in energy demand.

Crude exports from Russia have fallen significantly, with a reported decrease to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in early November, the lowest in over three years. Ukraine has targeted Russian refineries, further limiting exports. The situation escalated with President Putin threatening military action against nations aiding Ukraine.

Despite these pressures, Saudi Aramco cut the price for Arab Light crude by 30 cents per barrel for Asian customers, indicating sluggish demand. Furthermore, the number of active U.S. oil rigs declined to 407, the lowest in four years, while U.S. oil inventories were down 3% below the five-year seasonal average as of November 28, according to the EIA.

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