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On Tuesday, March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) closed up +181 (+3.17%), while March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) rose +133 (+3.23%). Cocoa prices reached 3.5-week highs due to a reduced global cocoa surplus outlook, with the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) lowering its global 2024/25 surplus estimate from 142,000 MT to 49,000 MT. Additionally, Rabobank cut its 2025/26 global cocoa surplus estimate to 250,000 MT from 328,000 MT.
Cocoa inventories in U.S. ports fell to an 8.75-month low of 1,672,131 bags. The Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, reported a 1.8% decrease in cocoa shipments from 819,425 MT to 804,288 MT for the marketing year from October 1 to December 7. Conversely, favorable weather conditions are reported to improve yields, with Mondelez noting that the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average.
Weak global cocoa demand adds pressure, with Q3 cocoa grindings in Asia dropping 17% year-on-year to 183,413 MT, and European grindings falling 4.8% to 337,353 MT, the lowest in 10 years. The National Confectioners Association reported a decline of over 21% in North American chocolate sales volume over a 13-week period ending September 7.
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