On Friday, March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed down by 6.90 cents (-1.83%), and January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) fell by 84 cents (-2.00%), reaching a 2.5-month low for robusta prices. A report from Brazil’s Conab raised the 2025 coffee production estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, contributing to the decline in prices.
Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported a significant increase in coffee exports for November, soaring 39% year-on-year to 88,000 metric tons, with year-to-date exports rising 14.8% to 1.398 million metric tons. Additionally, ICE arabica inventories, though temporarily recovering to 426,523 bags, remain relatively tight compared to previous months, impacting price volatility.
The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service expects a 2.5% increase in world coffee production for the 2025/26 season, projecting a rise to 178.68 million bags. Key figures include a forecasted production increase for Brazil to 65 million bags and for Vietnam to a four-year high of 31 million bags.
