Cocoa prices fell sharply on Monday, with March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) down 6.42% and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) down 7.05%. This decline is attributed to favorable weather conditions in West Africa, where cocoa crops are benefitting from a mix of rain and sunshine, leading to increased cocoa arrivals at ports in the Ivory Coast.
As of December 14, 2023, farmers in the Ivory Coast have shipped 895,544 metric tons of cocoa, reflecting a 0.2% rise from the same period last year. However, weak global demand persists, with Q3 cocoa grindings in Asia down 17% year-over-year, and a disappointing Halloween sales season reported by Hershey, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market.
On the supply side, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has projected a surplus of 49,000 metric tons for 2024/25, a significant change from a previous deficit estimate. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s cocoa production is expected to decline by 11% in 2025/26, further complicating the global supply outlook.
