Sugar prices dropped sharply on November 16, 2023, with March NY world sugar #11 closing at $14.50, down 1.90%, and March London ICE white sugar #5 at $414, down 1.52%. The decline to one-week lows is attributed to expected increases in sugar exports from India, following a statement from the country’s food secretary regarding potential additional export permissions to alleviate a domestic supply surplus.
India’s sugar production forecasts for the 2025/26 season are rising, with estimates increased to 34.9 million metric tons (MMT), up 19% year-over-year. The Indian Sugar Mill Association reported that sugar output from October 1 to December 15 has already risen by 28% year-over-year to 7.83 MMT. Meanwhile, Brazil’s sugar production is also set to rise, with forecasts suggesting an output increase to 45 MMT for the same season.
The USDA projects a global sugar production increase of 4.6% year-over-year, reaching a record 189.318 MMT for 2025/26, driven by higher outputs in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. This increase coincides with an anticipated sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for the season.
