February WTI crude oil closed up by +0.87 (+1.42%) on Wednesday, reaching a 2.5-month high, while February RBOB gasoline rose by +0.0039 (+0.21%). The escalation of protests in Iran has raised concerns about potential disruptions to the country’s crude supply, which currently exceeds 3 million barrels per day (bpd). The U.S. has begun advising personnel to evacuate from the Al Udeid Air base in Qatar amidst these tensions.
Recent reports show a bearish trend in U.S. crude inventories, with an unexpected rise of +3.39 million barrels against predictions of a -1.68 million barrel draw, as per the EIA. Gasoline supplies also increased by +9.98 million barrels, marking a nearly one-year high. Additionally, U.S. crude production fell by -0.4% to 13.753 million bpd, just below the record of 13.862 million bpd observed in early November.
Chinese crude imports are projected to rise by 10% month-over-month in December to a record 12.2 million bpd, supporting the crude price rally. The global oil surplus is expected to reach a record 4.0 million bpd in 2026, according to the IEA. Baker Hughes reported a decrease in active U.S. oil rigs to 409, close to a 4.25-year low, amidst a significant decline from the 627 rig high recorded in December 2022.
