As of today, March arabica coffee (KCH26) rose by 1.40 (+0.39%) and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) increased by 52 (+1.31%). Coffee prices turned upward after forecasts indicated reduced rainfall in Brazil’s coffee-growing areas over the coming week.
In Brazil, the largest arabica coffee-producing region, Minas Gerais, received only 26.5 mm of rain last week, which is 29% of its historical average. Recent data shows a fluctuation in ICE coffee inventories, with arabica stocks hitting a low of 398,645 bags on November 20, then recovering to 461,829 bags last Wednesday. In contrast, robusta inventories synchronized a decline to a low of 4,012 lots on December 10 before rising to 4,278 lots recently.
Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta coffee producer, reported a 17.5% year-over-year increase in 2025 coffee exports to 1.58 million metric tons. Projections indicate a 6% rise in Vietnam’s coffee production to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season.
