Evaluating UPS Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings: Investment Opportunity or Potential Pitfall?

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United Parcel Service (UPS) is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 27, 2026, before market opening. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects earnings per share (EPS) of $2.23 and revenues of $24.01 billion, reflecting year-over-year declines of 18.9% and 5.1%, respectively. For the full year 2025, revenues are estimated at $88.05 billion, representing a 3.3% decline.

In the trailing four quarters, UPS had three earnings beats and one miss, averaging an 11.2% surprise. The company has been reconfiguring its U.S. network to combat weak shipment volumes and expects a 10.6% drop in consolidated volumes for Q4. Additionally, UPS’s decision to reduce its e-commerce volume with Amazon by more than 50% by June 2026 has also constrained growth.

Despite these challenges, UPS aims to cut costs, projecting savings of about $1 billion through its efficiency initiatives in 2025 and focusing on higher-margin clients like small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). SMBs contributed 32.8% to total U.S. volume in the September quarter, showing a positive trend.

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