**Coffee Market Update – January 15, 2024**
On January 15, 2024, coffee prices saw an uptick, with March arabica coffee (KCH26) closing up 1.52% at +5.35 and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) up 1.33% at +55. This increase is attributed to a 0.5% decline in the dollar index, which hit a four-month low, benefiting commodity prices.
Brazilian coffee exports are down sharply, with total December exports dropping 18.4% year-over-year to 2.86 million bags. Arabica exports fell 10% to 2.6 million bags, while robusta exports plummeted 61% to 222,147 bags. Factors contributing to this trend include below-average rainfall in key coffee-growing regions and an overall increase in coffee production projections for 2025.
Conversely, steep rises in coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, pose a bearish outlook. Vietnam’s coffee exports for 2025 are projected to rise by 17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million metric tons, while production is expected to increase by 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons. The USDA projects a total world coffee production increase of 2% for 2025/26, despite declines in Brazilian arabica production.
