March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) fell by $0.19 (1.30%) to reach its lowest level in 2.5 months, while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) decreased by $7.00 (1.68%). The downturn is attributed to a projected global sugar surplus, with analysts from Czarnikow forecasting a surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) in the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26.
India’s sugar production for the 2025/26 season is anticipated to rise by 18.8% year-on-year to 31 MMT, bolstered by favorable conditions and adjustments in export quotas. Furthermore, Brazil’s sugar output is also on the rise, with a forecast of reaching 45 MMT for 2025/26, contributing to the bearish outlook on sugar prices along with increased production in Thailand.
The USDA projects global sugar production will reach a record 189.318 MMT for 2025/26, a rise of 4.6% year-on-year, against global consumption of 177.921 MMT. The continuous increase in production from major sugar-producing countries amplifies the concern for a global surplus, affecting market conditions adversely.
