On Wednesday, March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed down 2.66% at a 5.75-month low, while March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) fell 1.29%, reaching a 6-week low. The decline in coffee prices is attributed to an improving supply outlook driven by above-average rainfall in Brazil, particularly in Minas Gerais, which received 69.8 mm of rain, or 117% of the historical average, as reported by Somar Meteorologia.
Brazil’s total coffee production forecast for 2025 was raised by Conab to 56.54 million bags, a 2.4% increase from prior estimates. Concurrently, Vietnam’s coffee exports are projected to rise by 17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million metric tons, bolstering robusta coffee supply. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service predicts global coffee production in 2025/26 to increase by 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags, with arabica production decreasing by 4.7% and robusta increasing by 10.9%.
