On Friday, March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed down by -11.85 cents (-3.84%), reaching a 6-month low, while March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) fell -67 cents (-1.75%). This decline comes amid robust coffee supplies, driven by Brazil’s crop forecasting agency (Conab), which projects a record 2026 coffee production of 66.2 million bags, a 17.2% year-over-year increase, with arabica and robusta outputs expected to rise by 23.2% and 6.3% respectively.
Vietnam’s coffee exports, the world’s largest robusta source, surged by 38.3% year-over-year in January, hitting 198,000 metric tons, further pressuring robusta prices. Forecasts suggest that Vietnam’s coffee production for 2025/26 will reach a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), up 6% year-over-year. Additionally, Brazil experienced above-average rainfall, easing dryness concerns and contributing to bearish market sentiment.
