March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed on March 3, 2023, at $14.30 per pound, up 1.63%, marking a 1.5-week high. This surge follows a US Supreme Court ruling that struck down former President Trump’s tariffs, enabling more Brazilian sugar exports to the US, thus impacting global supply dynamics. Concurrently, May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) rose 0.82% to $406.40 per tonne.
Brazil’s sugar production faced a 36% year-on-year drop in the latter half of January, reported by Unica, with production in the Center-South region totaling only 5,000 metric tons. Cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 climbed slightly to 40.24 million metric tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. Meanwhile, analysts project a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons for the 2026-27 crop year.
On the other hand, India’s sugar output for 2025-26 rose by 22% year-on-year to 15.9 million metric tons, and the government’s recent approval allows an additional 500,000 metric tons for export, indicating a robust production outlook. In contrast, Thailand anticipates a 5% increase in its 2025-26 sugar crop to 10.5 million metric tons, which may contribute to a bearish sentiment in sugar pricing.
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